Ahead of the 2025 Paris Air Show, Embraer has released its commercial aviation market outlook. The Brazilian manufacturer expects demand for 10,500 sub-150-seat jets and turboprops within the next 20 years, with a potential commercial value of US$680 billion. 

While North America is expected to lead jet aircraft deliveries due to its significant internal demand, China is projected to lead the annual growth in RPK (revenue passenger kilometers).

RPK growth rate in China is expected to reach 5.7%, with Latin America and Africa following with 4.7% and 4.4%, respectively. North America ranks last, with a 2.4% growth rate. By the end of 2044, Asia Pacific will account for 39% of RPK, while Europe and North America combined will reach 37%. Overall, the global RPK will reach 19 trillion by 2044

Of the 10,500 units expected by 2044, 8,720 are jets and 1,780 are turboprops. Over 30% of the turbojet deliveries will serve North America, with Europe and CIS following with almost 2,000 deliveries. China will account for 17.2%, totaling 1,500 deliveries.

Turboprops

A different trend is observed in turboprop deliveries, where the Asia Pacific is expected to account for 36% of the new deliveries, followed by North America and Europe.

In North America, the share of small narrow-body aircraft, such as those serving Atlanta (ATL), Charlotte (CLT), and Houston (IAH), has increased over the past three years. This came at the expense of medium-narrow-bodies, whose share of the frequency decreased and was partially offset by large narrow-bodies (e.g., A321neo).

Embraer sees an opportunity for its products to serve the African market, boosting connectivity through increased flight frequency in the region, which is estimated to require 600 aircraft by 2044, totaling 370 more than the 2025 numbers. In Africa, manufacturers primarily see demand for intra-regional connections, where 85% of markets can be served by narrow-body aircraft.

Comments from Embraer CEO

The overall forecast for the number of new sub-150-seat aircraft remains almost unchanged from Embraer’s previous estimate. Arjan Meijer, President and CEO of Embraer's Commercial Aviation, attributes the consistency of the forecast to the longevity of social, supply chain, and geopolitical trends that Embraer identified during the pandemic.

“Five years after the onset of the pandemic, many of the structural changes it triggered have proven to be quite long-lasting. In our first post-pandemic Market Outlook, we highlighted the transition from globalization to a more polarized geopolitical outlook.”

“Today, as countries and regions pursue greater strategic autonomy, the demand for regional access will continue to grow. We believe mixed fleets that combine small and large narrowbody aircraft are essential for that long-term growth. They provide the versatility needed to better match capacity with demand, expand networks, and support national and regional development goals.”