Analysis: Summer 2025 vs 2024 Transatlantic Bookings

‍DALLAS — According to directional data provided by aviation analytics firm Cirium, summer 2025 air travel bookings between select U.S. and European cities have decreased compared to the same period in 2024. 

Based on bookings made between January 31 and May 7 for travel in June, July, and August, the findings suggest a slowdown in transatlantic demand across both directions.

Bookings from the U.S. to Europe are down 9.8%, while bookings from Europe to the U.S. have declined 12% yearly. 

This sample-based analysis covers a range of origin and destination cities and is derived primarily from third-party Online Travel Agencies (OTAs). It does not include bookings made directly with airlines, which often do not disclose such data publicly.

U.S. to Europe: City-Level Booking Trends

Among outbound routes from the U.S., some of the steepest booking drops were seen for flights to Munich (-24%), Amsterdam (-22%), Rome (-17%), and Athens (-19%). Several key destinations saw more moderate declines, including Madrid (-3%), Copenhagen (-2%), and Milan (-10%). Only Lisbon showed a positive booking trend, a 7% increase over last year. Paris bookings remained flat year-over-year.

Booking changes from the U.S. to Europe (2025 vs. 2024):

• Munich: -24%
• Amsterdam: -22%
• Rome: -17%
• Athens: -19%
• Barcelona: -16%
• Frankfurt: -16%
• London: -11%
• Dublin: -11%
• Milan: -10%
• Madrid: -3%
• Porto: -3%
• Copenhagen: -2%
• Naples: -1%
• Paris: 0%
• Lisbon: +7%

Europe to U.S.: City-Level Booking Trends

Inbound travel from Europe to the U.S. also shows broad declines, with the most significant drops recorded for San Francisco (-19%), Washington D.C. (-17%), Los Angeles and Houston (both -16%), and Atlanta (-14%). Cities like Miami (-5%) and Boston (-6%) experienced less pronounced decreases.

Booking changes from Europe to U.S. cities (2025 vs. 2024):

• San Francisco: -19%
• Washington, D.C.: -17%
• Los Angeles: -16%
• Houston: -16%
• Atlanta: -14%
• NYC (JFK): -13%
• Denver: -12%
• Dallas: -12%
• Seattle: -11%
• NYC (Newark): -10%
• Chicago: -10%
• Phoenix: -10%
• Boston: -6%
• Miami: -5%

Context, Limitations

Cirium emphasizes that the data is directional, offering a general indicator of booking trends rather than definitive numbers. The bookings come from a sample of routes and are aggregated across all U.S. and European carriers without distinction. 

Since many major airlines do not distribute through OTAs, and the data does not include direct airline bookings, this analysis should not be interpreted as a comprehensive reflection of total transatlantic travel.

Moreover, the dataset is limited to a specific list of cities: 15 European and 14 U.S. gateways. Therefore, changes in lesser-traveled routes or cities outside the sample are not captured.

A final caveat, while these figures suggest a cooling in summer transatlantic demand—especially to and from major hubs—they should be viewed as part of a broader, nuanced picture that includes direct airline data, economic conditions, pricing strategies, and evolving travel trends.

Transatlantic Leaders

This summer, Delta Air Lines (DL) is set to operate the most extensive transatlantic flight schedule among U.S. carriers. The airline offers over 700 weekly flights connecting the United States to 33 European destinations, marking its largest-ever transatlantic expansion.

Delta's growth includes new routes from major U.S. hubs such as Atlanta, New York-JFK, Boston, Detroit, and Minneapolis-St. Paul to European cities like Catania, Naples, Milan, Barcelona, Dublin, and Brussels. The airline has also increased frequencies on existing routes, notably from Atlanta to Rome, Zurich, and Barcelona.

Regarding seat capacity, DL leads with approximately 1.2 million seats across 4,846 transatlantic flights, surpassing United Airlines, which operates more flights but with a slightly lower seat count.

Across the pond, British Airways (BA) will operate the most transatlantic flights among European airlines this summer. The UK flag carrier is set to operate over 400 flights per week between North America and London during peak weeks, marking a record for the airline.

British Airways serves 26 U.S. cities non-stop from London, more than any other European carrier.