Op-Ed: Is Commercial Aviation Getting Tired?

‍DALLAS — Following the tragic event involving Air India flight AI171, a simple question arises concerning the global aviation industry: Is aviation becoming tired?

I have been formulating this theory for weeks, well before the dramatic events of Thursday, June 12. My formulation is based on a series of events, numbers, and announcements from the past five years. Over the past 25 years, the aviation industry has faced some of the most complex challenges in its history, which have both temporarily and permanently reshaped one of the world’s most essential industries.

More often than not, cash is king, so let’s begin with profitability. Today, profit margins are still deemed too low. While some airlines are reporting strong financial performances and rewarding their staff accordingly with stellar bonuses, most are only mitigating the effects of increasing costs, reporting mild profits.

At the 2025 IATA AGM, an increase in profitability was registered, albeit too low for comfort. Low profit margins mean caution in most aspects that concern an airline. As a result, from product upgrades to route planning, the industry is becoming more conservative.

In a modern and perfect world, OEMs would focus solely on clean-sheet designs instead of re-engined ones, airlines would be willing to incur higher fuel costs due to SAF, and passengers would accept the compromise of higher costs in exchange for a better, greener, and potentially faster experience. 

There is no doubt that airports, airspace, and aircraft are getting more crowded globally. This is reflected in the higher load factors registered by most large carriers, albeit the COVID-19 recovery is not yet complete. 

The pandemic provided the aviation industry with the opportunity to rethink itself and improve. However, this was not entirely executed due to the primary focus being aviation’s survival during the years of restrictions and travel bans.

The environmental question is also one that needs attention, and where airlines are torn between different aspects of their business. Until recently, the trade-off was limited to comfort versus affordability, with safety always being the top priority; today, the footprint needs to be taken into account, generating more headaches but also opportunities. 

Another factor contributing to a sense of tiredness is the continuous and ever-evolving airspace closure. Russia has been closed to most carriers since 2022, resulting in longer flights and airlines like Finnair having to create a new strategy to stay afloat. Escalation in the Middle East has been recurrent in the past years, with more news coming on June 13 of countries closing their airspace, airlines cancelling flights, and rerouting others to avoid active war zones.

The added pressure on fleets and planning has resulted in disservices for passengers, with airlines keeping their aircraft for longer than planned and having to invest in heavy retrofitting programs. 

Delivery slots are arguably one of the leading causes of tiredness in aviation. An airline ordering a widebody today is likely to receive the first unit in 5 to 10 years. A lucky example is Air India and Turkish Airlines, which received some of their A350s well ahead of schedule due to the ongoing sanctions against Russia. To put the delay in perspective, just two airlines, Air India and IndiGo, can single-handedly keep the entire final assembly line at Airbus busy for a full year. 

The same goes for modern narrowbodies and regional jets. The industry has accrued a backlog of years, in fact, decades, which can only be exacerbated by further supply chain challenges. Embraer recorded its highest-ever backlog in 2024, with a record order from American Airlines for up to 133 E175s.

The uncertainty in the industry concerning deliveries is unprecedented. As a result, we have seen an increase in “record-breaking” orders from airlines such as Indigo, Air India, Turkish Airlines, Emirates, American Airlines, ANA, and others. No global region is exempt. Airlines are paying heavy premiums to secure delivery slots and enforce a long-term growth strategy.

The tiredness of aviation is inevitably slowing down progress and innovation. Most, if not all, OEMs are acting more cautiously, holding on until new technology can be upscaled and playing it safe. This has been the case for years, with re-engined fuselages or, in some cases, minor tweaks to the aerodynamics and wing planform. Surely, these updates enable a hybrid generation of re-engined aircraft to reduce fuel consumption and enhance the passenger experience; however, it has been more than a decade since the last major aircraft announcement.

The risk is that aircraft like the B777X and B737-10, while improving on the previous generation, will not be able to meet the demand of airlines and customers. In the past few months, we have seen some attention shift away from what is supposed to be the future of Boeing Commercial Aviation, with significant orders being cancelled and airlines opting for the competition’s product instead of the more immediate replacement. 

Understaffing is also playing a part, both as a cause and a consequence of aviation fatigue. The lack of qualified professionals, ranging from traffic controllers to baggage handlers, is ultimately taking a toll on passengers' experiences, as well as on the airlines’ economics and supply chain.

Airports such as Zurich (ZRH), Amsterdam (AMS), and Frankfurt (FRA) in Europe have experienced significant delays in baggage handling. While airlines are not always to blame here, airports and service suppliers are operating under an increasing level of pressure. 

Last but not least, politics. Ongoing disputes between airports, airlines, and governments span the globe. It may be an issue with subsidization, a mismatch in noise levels, or a denied request for expansion; in all cases, politics plays a vital role in an airline's future, and even more so, in OEM’s results. It adds pressure and uncertainty to a complex system already.

The tiredness in aviation is a clear indicator of a much-needed smart revolution at all levels, sparing no stakeholder. It would be in the industry’s best interest to potentially reset from a shared point, removing all those barriers that remain untold but are very much contributing to the deterioration of civil aviation.