Jet Fuel Spike Hits Airlines as Gulf Crisis Scrambles Routes

‍DALLAS — Jet fuel prices are rising as the Gulf crisis disrupts air corridors, increases reroute mileage, and heightens concerns about supply and refining capacity. This is a significant challenge for airlines, as fuel is typically their highest variable cost.

IATA’s latest Jet Fuel Price Monitor shows the global average jet fuel price rose 3.6% week-over-week to $99.40 per barrel. In the U.S., the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index hit US$3.88 per gallon on March 6, 2026, reflecting rapid increases across major hubs.

Beyond crude, the jet crack, or the margin between jet fuel and crude oil, has surged, indicating that jet fuel supply is tightening more quickly than crude. S&P Global Commodity Insights reported that the European physical jet crack exceeded US$100 per barrel on March 5, reaching US$102.

U.S. carriers face greater exposure due to limited hedging

For United (UA), American (AA), and Delta (DL), the timing is challenging because most major U.S. carriers have largely discontinued fuel hedging. As a result, their quarterly results will be more sensitive if elevated prices persist.

Reuters also notes that reroutes and operational disruptions in the region are increasing costs by lengthening routes and increasing fuel consumption. The agency estimates that U.S. carriers could face billions in additional costs if prices remain high.

Gulf carriers face higher costs, reduced capacity

For Gulf hub operators, the impact is twofold: higher fuel costs and reduced flight operations. Reuters reported that Qatar Airways (QR) operated only limited repatriation flights while Qatari airspace was closed, highlighting how capacity constraints can compound rising unit costs.

According to a Forbes report, airline executives warn that downstream impacts may appear quickly, initially as schedule adjustments such as consolidations and reduced frequencies, followed by higher airfares if fuel prices remain elevated and detours continue.

As the situation develops, the factors for jet fuel will be how long major air corridors remain constrained and whether refinery yields and supply routes can meet demand, particularly in Europe and Asia, where cracks have increased most sharply.