Impact of Pakistan Airspace Closure on Indian Airlines

‍DALLAS — Today, Pakistan closed its airspace to all Indian aircraft, a significant development that has disrupted numerous international flights and created substantial operational challenges for Indian carriers. 

This closure follows a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, that killed 26 people, mostly tourists. It is part of broader reciprocal measures taken by Pakistan amid escalating tensions with India. 

Major airlines, including Air India (AI), IndiGo (6E), and SpiceJet (SG), have been forced to reroute flights to Europe, North America, the UK, and the Middle East, resulting in longer flight times, increased fuel consumption, and potential fare increases.

The situation mirrors a similar closure in 2019, which cost Indian carriers over ₹540 crore in five months.

Context of the Airspace Closure

The closure of Pakistani airspace to Indian aircraft comes as part of retaliatory measures following the Pahalgam terror attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. Pakistan's decision was announced after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif convened a meeting of the National Security Committee with top military officials, including Army Chief Asim Munir. This action is one among several diplomatic countermeasures Pakistan has implemented in response to India's accusations of Pakistan supporting "cross-border terrorism."

The timing of this closure is significant as it occurs amid escalating tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. India had previously suspended the water-sharing treaty, closed the main land border crossing with Pakistan, downgraded diplomatic ties, and withdrew visas for Pakistanis just over 24 hours after the Pahalgam attack. Pakistan responded with similar measures, including expelling Indian diplomats, canceling visas for Indian nationals (with exceptions for Sikh pilgrims), and closing the Wagah border crossing in Punjab.

Details of the Airspace Restriction

The Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority has issued a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), formally announcing the closure of its airspace to Indian aircraft. According to official statements, the ban applies to all Indian military aircraft, including those on lease. It will remain in effect until midnight on May 25, 2025—approximately one month from the date of this statement. The restriction affects all Indian-owned or Indian-operated airlines, creating significant disruptions to established flight paths.

Approximately 70 to 80 two-way flights from India pass through Pakistani airspace daily, sometimes exceeding 100 flights per day. These flights primarily operate between India and destinations in Europe, North America, the Middle East, and Central Asia. The most affected flights are those departing from major Indian cities, including Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Lucknow, Delhi, and Goa.

Impact on Airlines, Passengers

Operational Challenges

Indian carriers, particularly 6E and AI, conducted internal meetings to devise alternative routes for their international flights that normally transit through Pakistani airspace. These new flight paths, especially for services to Europe and the United States, will be longer and significantly increase operating costs. With the closure in effect, Indian airlines must take two alternate routes: one diverting flights over the Arabian Sea from Mumbai and Delhi, and another extending via Muscat and Doha before passing through Chinese airspace.

These detours are increasing flight times by an average of two to three hours. Specific examples of impact include:

• Flights from Delhi to Baku and Tbilisi are experiencing duration increases of approximately 90 minutes.
• The Delhi-Almaty service is being cancelled entirely.
• Flights to the UAE from North India require additional fuel to account for longer flying times.

Passenger Disruptions

The airspace closure has created considerable inconvenience for travelers. 6E, in its press release, acknowledged that the schedules of international flights are impacted and stated that its teams are working to minimize inconvenience to customers. The airline has promised to contact affected customers with alternate solutions and has recommended that all customers check the latest flight status on their website.

Air India similarly expressed regret for the inconvenience caused to passengers due to the "unforeseen airspace closure," while emphasizing that passenger and crew safety remains their top priority.

Financial Implications

The financial impact of this airspace closure on Indian airlines is expected to be substantial. Extended routes require significantly more fuel, especially for long-haul and heavy-duty aircraft, translating into additional operational costs of crores of rupees daily for Indian carriers.

Historical precedent provides some perspective on potential losses. According to business-standard.com, when Pakistan closed its airspace following the Pulwama terror attack in 2019, Indian carriers lost over ₹540 crore between February 26 and July 2, 2019. During that period:

• AI alone incurred losses of ₹491 crore
• SG lost ₹30.73 crore
• 6E lost ₹25.1 crore
• GoAir lost ₹2.1 crore

When Pakistani airspace reopened in 2019, AI stated that its operational costs for one-way flights to the US and Europe were expected to decrease by ₹20 lakh and ₹5 lakh, respectively. This gives some indication of the additional expenses airlines are now facing due to the current closure.

Fare Increases

With alternative routes increasing flight durations and fuel burn, operational expenses are expected to rise significantly. As a result, airfares are likely to increase as airlines pass on these higher costs to passengers.

An airline executive quoted by Business Standard stated directly: "The new flight paths, especially for services to Europe and the United States, will be longer and will increase our operating costs. Airfares will rise."

Airline Responses, Adjustments

Air India

Air India announced that, due to restrictions on Pakistan airspace, some of its flights to or from North America, the UK, Europe, and the Middle East will take alternative, extended routes. The airline stated on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter): 

“Air India regrets the inconvenience caused to our passengers due to this unforeseen airspace closure that is outside our control. We would like to reiterate that at Air India, the safety of our customers and crew remains top priority."

IndiGo

IndiGo, India's largest airline, which has rapidly expanded its international network westward in recent years, issued travel advisories to affected passengers. The airline stated, "We understand the inconvenience this may cause, and our teams are doing their best to help you reach your destination as soon as possible." 

According to their press release, 6E is working to keep impacted customers informed and offering alternate solutions, while recommending all customers check the latest flight status.

As India's largest carrier, with a fleet of over 400 aircraft operating around 2,200 daily flights connecting 90 domestic and 40 international destinations, 6E faces significant challenges in reworking its extensive network.

SpiceJet

An SG spokesperson stated that the airline's flights from North India to the UAE will now operate via alternative routes. These flights will carry additional fuel to account for the longer flying time, though the spokesperson clarified there is no significant impact on SG's flight schedules.

Historical Precedent: The 2019 Airspace Closure

This is not the first time Pakistan has closed its airspace to Indian carriers. A similar situation occurred for about five months in 2019 after the Pulwama terror attack, which killed 40 CRPF personnel. Following that attack, the Indian Air Force carried out airstrikes on a Jaish-e-Mohammed training camp in Balakot, Pakistan, on February 26, 2019. Pakistan responded by immediately closing its airspace to Indian carriers, a restriction that lasted until July 16, 2019.

The previous closure provides a template for understanding the potential duration and impact of the current situation. If the airspace remains closed for a comparable period, airline executives anticipate that the financial implications could be significant.

Bottom Line

The closure of Pakistani airspace to Indian airlines represents a significant operational and financial challenge for Indian carriers, particularly for those operating long-haul flights to Europe, North America, and the Middle East. With forced route diversions adding hours to flight times and substantially increasing fuel consumption, airlines face mounting costs that will likely be passed on to consumers through higher fares.

The situation highlights the vulnerability of civil aviation to geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. Based on the 2019 precedent, if this closure persists for months, Indian carriers could face losses in the hundreds of crores of rupees. For passengers, this means longer flight times, potential cancellations, and higher ticket prices in the coming weeks.

As airlines implement contingency plans and alternative routes, the situation remains fluid. Carriers like 6E and AI are working to minimize disruptions while prioritizing passenger safety above all else. Travelers are advised to stay updated on flight statuses and prepare for potential changes to their journey times and costs.

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