Boeing: South Asia to Add 2.8K Jets by 2045

‍DALLAS — Boeing has estimated enormous growth in the Indian and South Asian airline business, projecting that it will add 2,835 commercial airplanes in the next twenty years.

Ashwin Naidu, Boeing's managing director of commercial marketing for India and South Asia, said, "People will have more access to air travel, and the airlines in the region will need a modern fuel-efficient fleet to address higher demand over the next 20 years."

A Single-Aisle Boom with Wide-body Growth

According to Boeing, a single aisle would significantly increase, accounting for 2,445 from 2,835 delivery forecasts.

Therefore, nearly 90% of new aircraft set to enter the South Asian market by 2043 would fit this category. Since low-cost and major full-service carriers have chosen narrow-body aircraft for their core services, strong demand will endure for fuel-efficient, large-capacity, single-aisle aircraft.

The wide-body fleet is expected to grow at unprecedented levels, increasing fourfold to 370 aircraft. With the growth of Indian and South Asian airlines' international connectivity, particularly on long-haul routes to North America and Europe, passenger traffic growth will require larger aircraft.

India’s Rapid Growth, Fleet Expansion

India is one of the world's fastest-growing domestic markets, ranking third after the U.S. and China.

The country's aviation sector is experiencing exponential growth, increasing its middle-class population, further connectivity through air links, and more government initiatives such as the UDAN regional connectivity scheme.

Two of India's biggest carriers, IndiGo (6E) and Air India (AI), have taken leading roles in fleet modernization and expansion. 6E, operating in a single-type Airbus A320neo family fleet, has ordered the most significant aircraft volumes in commercial aviation history.

The Tata Group-owned AI is undergoing a major transformation, including fleet renewal, with Boeing and Airbus flying in narrow and wide-body jets.

Traffic Growth Outpacing Global Trends

Boeing estimates air traffic in South Asia will rise at an annual rate of over 7 percent through 2043, nearly three times faster than the rest of the world. 

This would be driven by domestic and international travel, with a surge in the full-service and low-cost segments.

A rising middle class, competitive airfares, and government support for infrastructure development will continue to fuel expansion. 

For instance, major airports in Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, and Hyderabad are being upgraded with larger capacities to accommodate increasing passenger volumes. On the other hand, India will have new greenfield airports, Noida International Airport and Jewar, which will help increase capacity in the rapidly growing aviation market.

Supply Chain, Production Challenges

Despite the massive demand for new aircraft, the world's aviation industry continues to suffer problems with production and delivery. Indian airlines are waiting for an order of approximately 1,800 aircraft from major manufacturers. Still, their delivery schedule remains uncertain due to chronic supply chain problems.

In 2024, it delivered the fewest aircraft since the COVID-19 era, primarily due to problems in the supply chain and labor strikes. However, it insists on speeding up production to deliver to airlines in demand.

Its closest competitor, Airbus, missed its target by a small margin for 2024, further fortifying the industry-wide supply constraint.

Challenges Facing the Indian Aviation Sector

Despite a healthy growth outlook, India's aviation industry still faces financial and operational challenges. Fluctuating currency and high jet fuel prices, which account for almost 40% of operating costs, put additional pressure on the industry. Low airfares keep profit margins down despite the huge volumes of passengers.

Airlines want to earn more money by providing more services, extra seats for premium economy, and more intercontinental flights. Nevertheless, most long-distance routes to North America and Europe are still dominated by foreign airlines despite Indian airlines' purchase of several large aircraft.

To be more competitive, Indian airlines must invest in more planes, build alliances, and strategically plan new routes.

Looking Ahead

India and South Asia are forecasted to be among the fastest-growing markets in the aviation sector, with the fleet projected to quadruple in two decades. TBoeing's prediction reflects the potential offered by this market, as airlines cannot seem to be put off from further expanding their networks to capitalize on gains in the demand curve.

However, supply chain constraints and volatile fuel prices further call for strategic planning and adaptability to those challenges. The following two decades would decide the future of South Asia's aviation sector at the forefront, with robust growth coupled with a modern fleet.

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