Op-Ed: IATA's 2050 Net-Zero Target Reality Check

DALLAS — In a not-surprising departure from its 2021 pledge, the aviation industry must now realize that its ambitious net-zero emissions target by 2050 may be out of reach. 

IATA Director General Willie Walsh delivered a candid message at an industry event in Phoenix, signaling a need to reassess the sector's sustainability roadmap.

At the 77th IATA Annual General Meeting in Boston, U.S., on October 4, 2021, IATA member airlines passed a resolution committing them to achieving net-zero carbon emissions from their operations by 2050. Bold promises marked that historic moment when the global aviation industry began recovering from the COVID-19 crisis. Today, however, that enthusiasm appears to be waning. 

Before a diverse audience of financiers, lessors, banks, and industry stakeholders, Walsh acknowledged for the first time that the sector is unlikely to meet its long-standing target.

This admission not only marks a turning point for IATA but also raises fundamental questions about the feasibility of the industry’s current sustainability plans. Let's dive in.

The Roadblock: Sustainable Aviation Fuels

The development and deployment of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) have been central to the industry's strategy for reducing emissions. Despite some progress—increasing production numbers that, while doubling in recent years, still represent only a tiny fraction of overall jet fuel demand—the slow pace of SAF adoption has become a critical concern. 

Walsh’s remarks pointed directly to these challenges, noting that the anticipated growth in SAF production has not materialized quickly enough to sustain the aggressive 2050 timeline.

Industry analysts and executives, including Aviation Week’s Jens Flottau and senior editors Joe Anselmo and Christine Boynton, have long warned that the path to net zero was built on overly ambitious assumptions—have a listen to the podcast episode where the editors discuss Walsh's acknowledgement of this.

The signs were already present in 2023. According to an assessment by the Center for Biological Diversity (CBD), it would be difficult to accomplish the previous White House administration's target of meeting 100% of U.S. jet fuel demand with biofuels by 2050 due to sustainability and supply issues.

The CBD is a national, nonprofit conservation organization with more than 1.7 million members and online activists dedicated to protecting endangered species and wild places.

According to the report, the majority of the feedstocks being evaluated for the production of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) would negatively impact the environment or the climate. The report adds that the development of renewable fuels alone cannot achieve the ambitious SAF production target.

“Once you examine the data, the aviation biofuels boon looks more like a boondoggle,” said John Fleming, Ph.D., a scientist at the Center’s Climate Law Institute and the lead author of the report.

“Aviation is inarguably one of the toughest sectors to decarbonize, but that’s exactly why we need a diversified, comprehensive approach. For Biden to put all our eggs in the biofuels basket is a reckless disregard of climate reality.”

To further complicate the matter, setting a 2050 target can seem disingenuous given that airplanes last, on average, a little over 20 years and that technologies won't likely be widely available for fleet adoption until the 2040s.

Walsh's acknowledgment, therefore, while surprising in its timing, confirms what many in the industry have feared: without a substantial breakthrough in sustainable fuel technology, the 2050 target will remain an elusive goal.

Political, Regulatory Shifts

The evolution of this narrative is set against a backdrop of shifting political and regulatory climates. In 2021, environmental mandates and policies—especially those pushed by the Biden administration and European governments—compelled airlines to pursue aggressive emissions reduction strategies. 

However, those external pressures have eased in many regions, particularly in the United States, as political priorities shift away from stringent sustainability mandates.

Despite these changes, European and Asian regulatory frameworks continue to impose strict emissions and SAF quotas. Walsh’s comments have already sparked concerns about potential conflicts with governments that insist on maintaining rigorous environmental standards. 

Furthermore, Bain & Co. partner Jim Harris pointed out in his July 2022 op-ed for Aviation Week that, according to a study on future aviation propulsion technologies, SAF production costs and supply availability would fall short of meeting aviation needs, even with government mandates and incentives encouraging early adoption and investment.

And let's not forget the time when seasoned Captain Ben K told the Marshall Skill Academy that while it was part of the push toward sustainability, “SAF is not completely carbon neutral; there are emissions when it’s refined and then transported to the airports.”

“You also still need to grow plants to make it – which takes up things like water, farm space, labour costs, and so on. This is why ‘lifecycle emissions’ is a phrase that pops up a lot in SAF press releases.”

This disconnect between industry projections, alternative fuel production, and regulatory demands will inform further debate in upcoming meetings, including the IATA General Assembly slated for June in Delhi.

Airlines, Manufacturers' Response

Even as Walsh’s comments cast doubt on the feasibility of the 2050 goal, major airlines have reiterated their commitment to sustainability. 

U.S. carriers like Delta Air Lines (DL), Southwest Airlines (WN), American Airlines (AA), and United Airlines (UA) have all confirmed that they will adhere to their net-zero targets, underscoring the importance of sustained investments in technology and innovation.

Efforts to drive progress are already underway. United Airlines, for instance, has launched a Sustainable Flight Fund to support startups working on SAF development and new aviation technologies. 

Meanwhile, innovative projects such as JetZero—a blended wing body prototype poised to offer significant efficiency gains—offer a glimpse into the potential future of cleaner air travel.

Aircraft manufacturers and regulatory bodies like the ICAO have also intensified their efforts. Recent meetings have produced recommendations to tighten emissions standards and accelerate the certification of new sustainable fuel pathways.

In 2024, Boeing announced a collaboration with NASA and UA to conduct in-flight tests to measure the impact of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) on contrails and non-carbon emissions.

The second ecoDemonstrator Explorer by Boeing, a Boeing 737-10 plane designated for UA, underwent testing using 100% SAF and traditional jet fuel stored in separate tanks. NASA's DC-8 Airborne Science Lab followed the commercial aircraft to evaluate the emissions and contrail ice particles generated by each fuel type.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the pond, Airbus and a consortium of industry leaders co-invested in a SAF financing fund to accelerate the production of green fuel. Airbus Canada, Pratt & Whitney Canada, and SAF+ Consortium also announced a joint project called CADAQ-100 to develop next-generation sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in collaboration with the Government of Quebec. 

The combined companies agreed to invest over C$17m (US$12.5m) in the project. To be sure, lowering CO2 emissions is a battle on many fronts, and the aviation industry is leading the way.

A Wake Up Call

Four billion passengers are moved by air annually, and the industry supports more than 60 million jobs worldwide. Despite an annual increase in flights, the aviation industry has invested heavily in new technology and operational methods, significantly reducing its carbon emissions, which is 2-3% of global carbon emissions (motor vehicles account for 83% of global emissions).

However, Walsh’s remarks serve as a wake-up call for the aviation industry. He risks reducing the external pressure that has driven critical innovations over the past few years by admitting that the current timeline is likely unachievable. 

The industry now faces the dual challenge of reconciling realistic technological advancements with stringent environmental regulations. While the short-term outlook appears grim, continued collaboration between airlines, manufacturers, and governments could still pave the way for meaningful progress toward sustainable aviation.

As aviation enthusiasts, we have to acknowledge that, compared to the early passenger jet models that entered service in the 1950s, today's aircraft are over 80% more fuel-efficient. I say leave it to the engineers.

As for SAF, it is not a panacea to curtail aviation's CO2 emissions, and yet, the aviation industry relies heavily on SAF to achieve net zero by 2050. Therefore, I agree with Harris' assumption that, unless we are ready to cap aviation traffic, the industry will eventually need to accelerate the adoption of other technologies into its fleet, which will take more than expected or proposed.

A poll conducted last year at the 'IBA Webinar: Net Zero for Aviation - An Impossible Target?' showed that 47% of attendees saw 2080 as a more realistic date. SAF plants are growing in capacity, and 53 airports worldwide are distributing SAFs.

Whether from biofuels, advanced biofuels converted from waste products, or synthetic liquid fuels, the SAF promise is just that. Experts say there will not be enough supply for many years. In 2021, 125m liters of SAF were produced—449m liters are needed by 2050. Unless there's a breakthrough, it's not going to happen.

The companion Center for Biological Diversity 2020 report, Flight Path, outlines feasible solutions, including improving aircraft fuel efficiency, making operational and regulatory improvements, and achieving "ambitious advancements" toward a fully electrified aviation sector.

Five years later, this technology in its infancy and poised for eVTOL short-range urban commuting, not for replacing air travel as we know it.

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