Ryanair Offers US$1.6bn Baltic Growth Plan While Cutting 550,000 Winter Seats

DUBLIN — Ryanair (FR) says it could double its traffic across the Baltic states within five years. The offer it published on September 17 is a conditional investment proposal rather than a committed expansion, and it arrived in the same announcement that cut the airline's winter capacity in two of the three countries.

Ryanair said the five-year plan could deliver 11 million annual seats, 16 based aircraft, and "thousands of new jobs" across Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, an investment it valued at US$1.6bn. The airline bases seven aircraft in the region now, according to Reuters.

Nothing in the proposal is scheduled. The release attaches no routes, bases, or delivery dates to it, and presents it as what the three governments could obtain if they "abolish aviation taxes and reduce excessive airport charges." The airline named the increases it objects to: a 70% rise at Tallinn Airport (TLL) in 2025, and more than 30% at Vilnius Airport (VNO) since 2023.

Riga grows, Tallinn and Vilnius shrink

The scheduling news in the same release runs the other way in two of the three markets. Ryanair will cut capacity in Estonia and Lithuania by 25% this winter, removing 550,000 seats, and reallocate that flying to what it called more competitive countries, among them Slovakia, Poland, Italy, and Sweden.

Latvia is the exception. Ryanair's Winter 2026 Riga Airport (RIX) schedule carries two based aircraft and 16 routes, with 40,000 additional seats for 6% growth and extra flights on 10 routes, including Barcelona and Milan Bergamo. The airline credited Riga's decision to reduce charges through a growth incentive scheme open to any carrier that adds traffic.

Chief Commercial Officer Jason McGuinness drew the line between the two outcomes directly: "Latvia reduces airport charges and Ryanair traffic grows +6%. Estonia and Lithuania increase access costs – Ryanair capacity falls 25%."

The structure is the argument. Ryanair is using a live schedule change in two markets as evidence for what it wants in all three, and the US$1.6bn is the size of the prize rather than a sum the airline has committed to spend.

The opening at airBaltic

The timing rests on airBaltic (BT). The Latvian carrier filed for Chapter 11 protection on September 14 in the US Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York, with a commitment for €350m in debtor-in-possession financing and an expected completion around June 2027. Its flights continue as normal. The carrier attributed the filing to a combination of financial and geopolitical pressures, among them jet fuel prices driven up by the Iran war and the projected transit traffic through Riga from Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine that never materialized.

McGuinness said the growth proposal "is even more important following airBaltic's announcement that it will shrink its fleet by one-third," a reduction Ryanair put at 54 aircraft to 36 by the end of 2026. airBaltic's August business plan projected about 36 Airbus A220-300s by the end of 2026, against 51 in its 2025 figures. Reuters reported the carrier is targeting about 40 aircraft by 2031, down from an earlier goal of 100.

Chapter 11 is a reorganization, not a wind-down, and that distinction matters to Ryanair's premise. airBaltic keeps operating its network through the restructuring, and the fleet reduction Ryanair cites is a business-plan decision the carrier made in August, before it filed. The airline told Reuters that Ryanair's plan should be judged on delivery: "Competition is good for airlines and ultimately good for passengers. At airBaltic, however, we believe connectivity is measured by what you deliver, not by what you promise."

Ryanair also turned on airBaltic's owner, saying Latvia has "wasted" more than €550m of taxpayer money since May 2020 across five equity injections, three loans, and a Covid compensation payment, and calling the carrier a "zombie" airline. As of March 31, the Republic of Latvia held 88.37% of airBaltic's voting rights and Lufthansa Group held 10%.

What would have to happen

For the proposal to become capacity, Estonia and Lithuania would have to cut the charges Ryanair is protesting, and Ryanair would have to allocate aircraft it is currently moving elsewhere. Neither has happened. No Baltic government had responded publicly in the material reviewed for this article, and Ryanair's release does not say what a sufficient reduction would look like.

The nearer test is narrower: whether Riga's incentive scheme holds and the 6% winter growth there arrives as filed, while airBaltic runs its restructuring out of a New York courtroom into the middle of next year.