IATA: Air Travel Demand Set to More Than Double by 2050

MONTREAL — Global passenger air travel demand is projected to more than double over the next 25 years, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Airlines are preparing for sustained growth, although annual expansion rates are expected to slow from historic highs.

IATA’s Long-Term Demand Projections (LTDP) model forecasts demand will rise from 9 trillion revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) in 2024 to 20.8 trillion RPKs by 2050 in the mid-range scenario, representing a 3.1% CAGR from 2024 to 2050. In the high-growth scenario, demand reaches 21.9 trillion RPKs (3.3% CAGR), while the low-growth scenario projects 19.5 trillion RPKs (2.9% CAGR).

Emerging markets will drive the next phase of aviation growth

IATA expects regional growth to be uneven, with Asia-Pacific (3.8% CAGR) and Africa (3.6%) leading. Mature markets are projected to expand more slowly, with North America at 2.8% and Europe at 2.5% in the mid scenario.

IATA identifies intra-Africa and Africa–Asia Pacific routes as among the fastest-growing, with continued strong demand within Asia-Pacific and between Asia and the Middle East.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh stated that these projections highlight the need for coordinated action on airport and airspace infrastructure, regulatory harmonization, and the energy transition, especially scaling sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), to support growth while meeting climate goals.

The caveat? IATA reports that the COVID-19 shock caused a structural break in demand. Even in strong recovery scenarios, traffic is not expected to fully return to the pre-pandemic, GDP-aligned trajectory by mid-century, reflecting ongoing effects from the 2020–2021 collapse. It's ok, we'll take the more-than-double scenario.

All data point from IATA release.